2026 Hurricane Season: Atlantic Calm vs. Pacific Fury

Unprecedented Activity in 2026 Hurricane Season

The 2026 hurricane season has presented an unusual scenario, marked by an exceptionally calm Atlantic Ocean juxtaposed against a highly active eastern and central Pacific Ocean. Only seven tropical storms have developed in the Atlantic, while the Pacific has seen a staggering 18 storms and hurricanes.

Storm Statistics and Historical Context

Typically, both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane regions experience similar activity levels, averaging around 14 to 15 named storms, including seven to eight hurricanes by the season’s end on November 30. However, this year, the Atlantic has yet to produce a single hurricane, while the eastern Pacific has already recorded eight.

Interestingly, several storms in both basins originated from Africa and were influenced by the powerful climate phenomenon known as El Niño. Despite this shared origin, the outcomes diverged significantly, resulting in intense hurricanes in the Pacific and relatively mild tropical storms in the Atlantic.

Monitoring Tropical Storms

Meteorologists and climate scientists are actively monitoring these tropical systems using a fleet of satellites managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Over six decades since the advent of satellite technology for hurricane observation, researchers continue to enhance their understanding of how tropical waves form, develop, and traverse various regions.

This summer has been notably quiet in the Atlantic. The few tropical waves that have emerged are being disrupted by shearing winds associated with El Niño. For instance, Tropical Storm Gonzalo, which formed on September 25, was the season’s seventh named storm and arrived three weeks later than usual for storms designated with the letter ‘G.’

Limited Hurricane Potential

Gonzalo is not expected to escalate into a hurricane, exemplifying the challenges faced by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic this year. On the same day, Tropical Storm Fay was also active in the Atlantic, located in open waters while Gonzalo moved through the Cape Verde Islands.

Pacific Activity on the Rise

In stark contrast, the central and eastern Pacific have recorded 18 named storms, with the possibility of two additional storms forming by early October, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Stacy Stewart, a former hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, now a meteorology instructor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, noted that the conditions in both basins are partially linked to the ongoing ‘super El Niño.’ However, he emphasized that the calm in the Atlantic is also influenced by a drought in Ethiopia, along with dry air and Saharan dust.

Origins of Tropical Waves

Many residents within the Atlantic hurricane basin may not realize that numerous tropical waves originate from the Ethiopian Highlands. According to Kelly Nuñez Ocasio, an assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University, these waves are among many that develop annually off the African coast.

While most waves that depart from western Africa do not evolve into tropical storms or hurricanes, those stemming from the Ethiopian Highlands are more likely to strengthen into hurricanes due to the conducive formation of large storm clusters.

Some waves originating in Africa traverse the northern tip of South America before entering the eastern North Pacific, potentially leading to the formation of tropical cyclones there as well, Stewart explained.

Impact of Drought Conditions

The ongoing drought in Ethiopia has resulted in a lack of thunderstorm activity necessary for generating the large storm clusters and tropical waves capable of surviving the journey across the African Sahel and resisting shear conditions over the Atlantic. June and July 2026 recorded some of the driest conditions on record, with rainfall deficits ranging from 40% to 70% across northern, eastern, and central Ethiopia.

“The last time we went this long without an Atlantic hurricane was in 1914,” stated Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. “Of course, who knows what we really had for activity in 1914?”

As of late September, the accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic stands at approximately nine, a stark contrast to the typical total of 88 for this time of year. This figure represents the lowest energy level since 1925, a time when many storms likely went unobserved due to the absence of aircraft reconnaissance and satellite technology.

Record High Wind Shear

Klotzbach remarked, “The significant story this year has been the record high levels of vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic. The constant disruption of any system attempting to develop has been a recurring theme. While we cannot dismiss the possibility of a late-season hurricane, this season is shaping up to be one of the quietest since 1950, when reliable records began.”

Pacific’s Unusual Activity

Conversely, the Pacific Ocean has experienced an unusually active season. The eastern Pacific has accumulated cyclone energy totaling 235, compared to the typical 108 for this period. The El Niño phenomenon has contributed to warmer waters and lower wind shear, creating favorable conditions for rapid intensification, as seen with Hurricane Polo, which reached sustained winds of 180 mph.

This has also meant that the Hawaiian Islands are facing potential impacts from Hurricane Nolo, which approached the state during the last weekend of September. The Central Pacific has recorded seven storms and hurricanes this season, a level of activity matched by only seven other seasons since 1970.

Potential Hurricane Status of Fay

While no hurricanes have been officially recorded in the Atlantic, some meteorologists suspect that Tropical Storm Fay may have briefly reached hurricane strength on September 20. Lacking reconnaissance flights, forecasters had limited data to confirm this.

The center relied on satellite observations and estimates for forecasts, with Fay’s peak winds recorded at 70 mph, just shy of hurricane classification.

Whether Fay truly attained hurricane status remains uncertain. Dan Brown, the operations division chief at the hurricane center, indicated that a comprehensive review will be conducted as part of the center’s post-storm report in the coming weeks, which could lead to changes in storm intensity and classification.

The center performs post-analysis for every tropical cyclone, which can result in revisions to intensity and storm status. For example, Hurricane Michael was upgraded from Category 4 to Category 5 following a detailed analysis of its peak wind speeds.

Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, covers severe weather, climate change, and related news. She can be reached at dpulver@usatoday.com.

Source Reference (USA Today): Hurricane season is broken. Two oceans are historically out of whack