El Niño Forecast Predicts Snowy Winter for Some States
El Niño’s Impact on Winter Weather
A powerful El Niño developing in the Pacific is set to create a divided winter across the United States, with nine states anticipating above-average snowfall, while others may experience unusually warm and dry weather.
NOAA’s Projections
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center forecasts that this weather phenomenon will persist at strong to very strong levels until March 2027, significantly altering typical winter weather patterns. Meteorologists indicate that this atmospheric shift is likely to drive the jet stream southward and eastward, resulting in increased storm activity particularly in the southern regions of the country.
“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” said Ken Graham, Director of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS), in a winter outlook released on October 15.
Graham also warned that while increased precipitation could alleviate drought conditions in some areas, excessive rainfall on dry soil poses risks of flash floods and mudslides. “Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter,” he added.
El Niño Explained
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, occurring every two to seven years and typically lasting between nine and twelve months. It is characterized by elevated ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and weakened trade winds, affecting global weather patterns.
This year’s El Niño has already set records for the rise in ocean surface temperatures, with stronger El Niño events often correlating with more intense storms.
Comparative Weather Patterns
In contrast to El Niño, La Niña features stronger trade winds and cooler ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.
In the U.S., the effects of El Niño are generally most pronounced during the fall and winter months. Historically, stronger El Niño occurrences have led to a more active storm track across the southern states while contributing to warmer-than-average conditions in parts of the northern U.S. Consequently, states that typically receive significant snowfall may see reduced totals due to the dominance of warmer air.
Conversely, the alteration in storm patterns can enhance snowfall in other areas by providing the necessary moisture and cold air, resulting in some states that experienced minimal snowfall last winter now expecting above-average conditions.
States Anticipating Increased Snowfall
According to a recent report by AccuWeather, states projected to receive more snowfall this winter include Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and California. This forecast stands in stark contrast to last winter’s conditions, especially in the Intermountain West, where a snow drought adversely affected ski seasons and raised drought concerns.
“We’d like to get more snow there,” said Mike Bettes, an on-camera meteorologist for The Weather Channel. “The Colorado River basin had an awful season last year. Salt Lake City had paltry amounts of snow last year, so they’d like to make up there if they could.”
Expected Weather Changes
The climate pattern is anticipated to bring a robust subtropical jet stream into Southern California, along with another storm track extending into the Central Plains. According to Merrill, there will be significantly more moisture compared to last year, which is likely to fall as snow in higher elevations.
Moreover, a strong El Niño may also lead to wetter conditions across the South. Bettes noted that cold air intrusions could potentially cause snow and ice storms in the Tennessee Valley, recalling similar occurrences during the 2023 El Niño year.
“Something similar could happen for us again this year,” Bettes remarked.
Historical Context
This year’s predictions align with historical data from NOAA regarding El Niño’s influence on snowfall across the U.S. The impact of El Niño on snowfall varies significantly nationwide. Regions such as California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey have historically experienced snowfall totals exceeding 10 inches above normal during moderate-to-strong El Niño winters from January to March.
In contrast, areas like the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, Great Lakes region, and Northeast may see snowfall totals reduced by as much as 10 inches below average.
Upcoming Weather Events
A storm linked to El Niño is expected to reach California as soon as this weekend, bringing heavy rain to Southern California and snow to higher elevations. This storm marks the beginning of a series of weather events anticipated across the U.S. West due to El Niño’s influence.
Looking ahead, Merrill indicated that the winter season could have a prolonged duration, with storms likely continuing into March and April before tapering off.
Newsweek reporters and editors utilized Martyn, our AI assistant, to compile this story. For further information, contact Newsweek editors Anthony Murray and Kate Nalepinski.
Source Reference (newsweek.com): El Niño Map Shows Which States Could Be Hit With More Snow This Year